Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?

Open · Resolves in 12 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

81.5%

24h Change

+46.0 pp

Signal Score

90/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability rose 46.0pp; volume is 5.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-19 12:22 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 46.0pp
24h volume is 5.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $79,084

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

81.5%

24h Change

+46.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

168 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 19, 12:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/19/2026, 12:15:00 PM	81.5%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 PM	80.5%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 AM	79.5%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 AM	79.5%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 AM	79.5%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 AM	75.5%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 AM	74.0%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 AM	74.5%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 AM	74.5%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 AM	76.0%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 AM	79.5%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 AM	78.5%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 AM	84.5%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 AM	73.5%
9/18/2026, 11:00:00 PM	78.0%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 PM	80.5%
9/18/2026, 9:00:00 PM	78.0%
9/18/2026, 8:30:00 PM	75.5%
9/18/2026, 8:00:00 PM	79.5%
9/18/2026, 7:00:00 PM	73.5%
9/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM	76.0%
9/18/2026, 5:00:00 PM	74.5%
9/18/2026, 4:00:00 PM	72.5%
9/18/2026, 3:00:00 PM	76.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+2.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$119.3K

Volume vs Baseline

5.0x baseline

Liquidity

$79.1K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 12 days

End Date

Oct 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 90/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 43

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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