US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

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Current Probability

100.0%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

24/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

volume is 1.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-17 11:19 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 1.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $492,581

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

100.0%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

89 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 17, 11:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/17/2026, 11:15:00 AM	100.0%
9/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM	100.0%
9/17/2026, 10:00:00 AM	100.0%
9/17/2026, 9:00:00 AM	100.0%
9/17/2026, 8:00:00 AM	100.0%
9/17/2026, 7:00:00 AM	100.0%
9/17/2026, 6:00:00 AM	100.0%
9/17/2026, 5:00:00 AM	100.0%
9/17/2026, 4:15:00 AM	100.0%
9/17/2026, 4:00:00 AM	100.0%
9/17/2026, 3:00:00 AM	100.0%
9/17/2026, 2:00:00 AM	100.0%
9/17/2026, 1:00:00 AM	100.0%
9/17/2026, 12:00:00 AM	100.0%
9/16/2026, 11:00:00 PM	100.0%
9/16/2026, 10:45:00 PM	100.0%
9/16/2026, 10:00:00 PM	100.0%
9/16/2026, 9:00:00 PM	100.0%
9/16/2026, 8:00:00 PM	100.0%
9/16/2026, 7:00:00 PM	100.0%
9/16/2026, 6:00:00 PM	100.0%
9/16/2026, 5:00:00 PM	100.0%
9/16/2026, 4:00:00 PM	100.0%
9/16/2026, 3:00:00 PM	100.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$259.4K

Volume vs Baseline

1.6x baseline

Liquidity

$492.6K

Market Significance

High (83)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 24/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 29

Liquidity Quality 94

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

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