US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?
Current Probability
99.5%
24h Change
+8.0 pp
Signal Score
57/100
Data Confidence
High (83)
24h probability rose 8.0pp; volume is 4.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability rose 8.0pp
- 24h volume is 4.7x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $43,029
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.
Browse other marketsCurrent
99.5%
24h Change
+8.0 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
+1.6 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$105.0K
Volume vs Baseline
4.7x baseline
Liquidity
$43.0K
Market Significance
High (79)
Market Status
Closed
End Date
Sep 11, 2026
Attention Score
73
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 57/100.