US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
Current Probability
98.9%
24h Change
+8.4 pp
Signal Score
52/100
Data Confidence
High (83)
24h probability rose 8.4pp; volume is 3.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability rose 8.4pp
- 24h volume is 3.4x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $40,110
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.
Browse other marketsCurrent
98.9%
24h Change
+8.4 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
+1.5 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$117.3K
Volume vs Baseline
3.4x baseline
Liquidity
$40.1K
Market Significance
High (79)
Market Status
Closed
End Date
Sep 7, 2026
Attention Score
64
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 52/100.