Trump out as President by September 30?

Open · Resolves in 11 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.4%

24h Change

-0.2 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 0.2pp; volume is 5.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-20 22:17 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.2pp
24h volume is 5.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $232,772

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.4%

24h Change

-0.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

177 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 20, 10:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/20/2026, 10:15:00 PM	0.4%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 6:30:00 PM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/20/2026, 3:45:00 PM	0.4%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 10:45:00 AM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.7%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.7%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.7%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.7%
9/20/2026, 4:30:00 AM	0.7%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.7%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$269.1K

Volume vs Baseline

5.5x baseline

Liquidity

$232.8K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 11 days

End Date

Oct 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 94

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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