Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?

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Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-17.4 pp

Signal Score

72/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability fell 17.4pp; volume is 9.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-15 16:37 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 17.4pp
24h volume is 9.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $35,511

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-17.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

33 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 15, 04:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/15/2026, 4:30:00 PM	0.1%
9/15/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/15/2026, 3:00:00 PM	3.5%
9/15/2026, 2:00:00 PM	5.5%
9/15/2026, 1:00:00 PM	9.8%
9/15/2026, 12:00:00 PM	9.8%
9/15/2026, 11:15:00 AM	9.9%
9/15/2026, 11:00:00 AM	9.6%
9/15/2026, 10:00:00 AM	10.7%
9/15/2026, 9:00:00 AM	9.2%
9/15/2026, 8:00:00 AM	10.6%
9/15/2026, 7:00:00 AM	11.1%
9/15/2026, 6:00:00 AM	16.0%
9/15/2026, 5:00:00 AM	5.8%
9/15/2026, 4:00:00 AM	5.5%
9/15/2026, 3:00:00 AM	4.9%
9/15/2026, 2:00:00 AM	6.8%
9/15/2026, 1:00:00 AM	7.0%
9/15/2026, 12:00:00 AM	7.0%
9/14/2026, 11:00:00 PM	7.8%
9/14/2026, 10:00:00 PM	10.2%
9/14/2026, 9:00:00 PM	11.2%
9/14/2026, 8:00:00 PM	15.2%
9/14/2026, 7:00:00 PM	12.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-3.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$192.5K

Volume vs Baseline

9.8x baseline

Liquidity

$35.5K

Market Significance

High (80)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 15, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 72/100.

Probability Momentum 58

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 52

Data Confidence High (84)

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