Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?

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Current Probability

0.3%

24h Change

-83.2 pp

Signal Score

89/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability fell 83.2pp; volume is 9.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 12:25 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 83.2pp
24h volume is 9.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $50,093

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.3%

24h Change

-83.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

86 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 12:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 12:15:00 PM	0.3%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.4%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.4%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.7%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.7%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.7%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.7%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.7%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.7%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.7%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.6%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.5%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM	15.0%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	26.5%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	77.0%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	66.5%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM	81.5%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM	83.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$76.8K

Volume vs Baseline

9.5x baseline

Liquidity

$50.1K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 20, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 89/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 40

Data Confidence High (82)

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