Will Germany win on 2026-09-24?

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Current Probability

38.5%

24h Change

+3.0 pp

Signal Score

46/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 3.0pp; volume is 42.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-24 16:50 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 3.0pp
24h volume is 42.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $314,443

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

38.5%

24h Change

+3.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

165 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 24, 04:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/24/2026, 4:45:00 PM	38.5%
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 PM	38.5%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 PM	38.5%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM	38.5%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 PM	38.5%
9/24/2026, 12:00:00 PM	38.5%
9/24/2026, 11:00:00 AM	37.5%
9/24/2026, 10:00:00 AM	37.5%
9/24/2026, 9:00:00 AM	37.5%
9/24/2026, 8:00:00 AM	36.5%
9/24/2026, 7:00:00 AM	35.5%
9/24/2026, 6:00:00 AM	35.5%
9/24/2026, 5:00:00 AM	35.5%
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 AM	34.5%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 AM	34.5%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 AM	35.5%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 AM	35.5%
9/24/2026, 12:00:00 AM	35.5%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 PM	35.5%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 PM	35.5%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 PM	35.5%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 PM	35.5%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 PM	35.5%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM	35.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$83.0K

Volume vs Baseline

42.4x baseline

Liquidity

$314.4K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 24, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 46/100.

Probability Momentum 10

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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