Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

56.5%

24h Change

+1.0 pp

Signal Score

43/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability rose 1.0pp; volume is 6.1x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 6 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-24 04:01 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 1.0pp
24h volume is 6.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $136,098

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

56.5%

24h Change

+1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 24, 04:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 AM	56.5%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 AM	56.5%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 AM	56.5%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 AM	56.5%
9/24/2026, 12:00:00 AM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 PM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 10:45:00 PM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 PM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 PM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 PM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 PM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 6:15:00 PM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 PM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 PM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 2:00:00 PM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 1:15:00 PM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 1:00:00 PM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 12:00:00 PM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 AM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 AM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 AM	55.5%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 AM	55.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$102.7K

Volume vs Baseline

6.1x baseline

Liquidity

$136.1K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Sep 24, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 43/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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