Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?

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Current Probability

1.0%

24h Change

-41.5 pp

Signal Score

89/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 41.5pp; volume is 8.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 23:04 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 41.5pp
24h volume is 8.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $15,651

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.0%

24h Change

-41.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

95 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 11:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.0%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 PM	2.1%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 PM	2.6%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.8%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.3%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 PM	11.0%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 PM	26.0%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 PM	46.5%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 PM	54.5%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 PM	52.5%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 PM	51.5%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 PM	48.0%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 AM	50.5%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 AM	47.0%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 AM	45.5%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 AM	42.0%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 AM	47.0%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 AM	43.5%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	45.5%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	43.5%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	49.5%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	42.5%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM	43.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$74.3K

Volume vs Baseline

8.0x baseline

Liquidity

$15.7K

Market Significance

Moderate (68)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 22, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 89/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 82

Persistence 42

Data Confidence High (81)

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