Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 20?

Closed View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

100.0%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

Signal Score

21/100

Data Confidence

High (73)

24h probability rose 0.5pp

Data may be stale — last sync exceeded two update cycles. Freshness updates on the next successful sync.

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-20 15:45 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
  • Liquidity depth $43,220
  • High data confidence (73)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Latest 100.0% · Sep 20, 03:45 PM

98% 100% 100% Sep 19 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 20 Current 100.0% · 7d of stored history · 27 pts

Current

100.0%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

82 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 20, 03:45 PM

View history table
Time Probability
9/20/2026, 3:45:00 PM 100.0%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM 100.0%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM 99.9%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM 99.8%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM 99.7%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 AM 99.7%
9/20/2026, 10:45:00 AM 99.7%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM 99.1%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM 98.9%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 AM 99.1%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 AM 99.1%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 AM 99.1%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 AM 98.7%
9/20/2026, 4:30:00 AM 98.4%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 AM 98.3%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 AM 98.6%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 AM 99.4%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 AM 99.4%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 AM 99.7%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 PM 99.6%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 PM 99.5%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 PM 99.8%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 PM 99.6%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 PM 99.6%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$105.7K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$43.2K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 20, 2026

Attention Score

18

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 21/100.

Probability Momentum 2
Volume Activity 0
Liquidity Quality 87
Persistence 46
Data Confidence High (73)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.