Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 21?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

99.9%

24h Change

+3.5 pp

Signal Score

21/100

Data Confidence

High (70)

24h probability rose 3.5pp

Market data

Updated 51 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 12:25 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $28,584
High data confidence (70)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

99.9%

24h Change

+3.5 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

Coverage

7d of stored history

165 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 12:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 12:15:00 PM	99.9%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 PM	99.9%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 AM	99.9%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM	99.9%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 AM	99.8%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 AM	99.3%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 AM	99.4%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 AM	99.4%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 AM	99.4%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	99.1%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	99.1%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	98.2%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	98.6%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM	98.4%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM	97.9%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 PM	96.9%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 PM	97.5%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 PM	97.7%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM	97.5%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	97.6%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	97.9%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	97.3%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM	97.0%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM	97.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

24h Volume

$164.5K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$28.6K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Sep 21, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 21/100.

Probability Momentum 12

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (70)

Next Steps

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