Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?

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Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-24.4 pp

Signal Score

53/100

Data Confidence

High (70)

24h probability fell 24.4pp

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-19 07:10 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $54,215
High data confidence (70)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-24.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

5d of stored history

46 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 19, 07:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.8%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 AM	2.9%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 AM	2.6%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 AM	2.3%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 AM	2.0%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 AM	2.0%
9/18/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.8%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/18/2026, 9:00:00 PM	2.1%
9/18/2026, 8:00:00 PM	2.3%
9/18/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.4%
9/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.8%
9/18/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.9%
9/18/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.9%
9/18/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.2%
9/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM	10.0%
9/18/2026, 1:00:00 PM	17.5%
9/18/2026, 12:00:00 PM	16.0%
9/18/2026, 11:00:00 AM	26.5%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 AM	37.5%
9/18/2026, 9:00:00 AM	27.5%
9/18/2026, 8:00:00 AM	26.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$104.7K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$54.2K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 19, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 53/100.

Probability Momentum 82

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (70)

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