Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

22.5%

24h Change

+10.0 pp

Signal Score

62/100

Data Confidence

High (85)

24h probability rose 10.0pp; volume is 4.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-24 16:50 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 10.0pp
24h volume is 4.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $20,573

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

22.5%

24h Change

+10.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

168 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 24, 04:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/24/2026, 4:45:00 PM	22.5%
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 PM	16.5%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 PM	17.5%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM	13.5%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 PM	12.5%
9/24/2026, 12:00:00 PM	13.5%
9/24/2026, 11:15:00 AM	16.5%
9/24/2026, 11:00:00 AM	16.5%
9/24/2026, 10:00:00 AM	16.5%
9/24/2026, 9:00:00 AM	17.5%
9/24/2026, 8:00:00 AM	16.5%
9/24/2026, 7:00:00 AM	16.0%
9/24/2026, 6:00:00 AM	14.5%
9/24/2026, 5:00:00 AM	12.5%
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 AM	12.5%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 AM	8.5%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 AM	17.5%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 AM	20.5%
9/24/2026, 12:00:00 AM	19.5%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 PM	18.5%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 PM	15.5%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 PM	14.5%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 PM	11.0%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 PM	14.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+5.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$86.6K

Volume vs Baseline

4.8x baseline

Liquidity

$20.6K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Sep 25, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 62/100.

Probability Momentum 33

Volume Activity 97

Liquidity Quality 84

Persistence 70

Data Confidence High (85)

Next Steps

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