Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026

Open · Resolves in 99 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

2.8%

24h Change

-2.8 pp

Signal Score

21/100

Data Confidence

High (70)

24h probability fell 2.8pp

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 19:10 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $78,653
High data confidence (70)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

2.8%

24h Change

-2.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

6d of stored history

102 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 07:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 PM	2.8%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 PM	2.8%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 PM	2.7%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 PM	3.1%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 PM	3.7%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 PM	3.5%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 PM	2.9%
9/21/2026, 12:15:00 PM	2.7%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 PM	4.2%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 AM	4.3%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM	5.3%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 AM	5.8%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 AM	5.8%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 AM	5.9%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 AM	6.3%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 AM	6.5%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	6.7%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	6.7%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	6.6%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	6.5%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM	6.2%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM	5.8%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 PM	6.9%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 PM	7.8%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$94.1K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$78.7K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 99 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 21/100.

Probability Momentum 9

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (70)

Next Steps

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