Tiburon: Timo Legout vs Bryce Nakashima

Open · Resolves in 3 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

24.0%

24h Change

-41.5 pp

Signal Score

71/100

Data Confidence

Medium (67)

24h probability fell 41.5pp

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-17 21:08 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $120,967
Medium data confidence (67)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

24.0%

24h Change

-41.5 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

46 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 17, 09:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/17/2026, 9:00:00 PM	24.0%
9/17/2026, 8:00:00 PM	54.5%
9/17/2026, 7:00:00 PM	63.5%
9/17/2026, 6:00:00 PM	63.5%
9/17/2026, 5:00:00 PM	63.5%
9/17/2026, 4:00:00 PM	64.5%
9/17/2026, 3:00:00 PM	63.5%
9/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM	62.5%
9/17/2026, 1:00:00 PM	60.5%
9/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM	60.5%
9/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM	62.5%
9/17/2026, 10:00:00 AM	62.5%
9/17/2026, 9:00:00 AM	63.5%
9/17/2026, 8:00:00 AM	65.5%
9/17/2026, 7:00:00 AM	65.5%
9/17/2026, 6:00:00 AM	65.5%
9/17/2026, 5:00:00 AM	65.5%
9/17/2026, 4:00:00 AM	65.5%
9/17/2026, 3:00:00 AM	65.5%
9/17/2026, 2:00:00 AM	65.5%
9/17/2026, 1:00:00 AM	65.5%
9/17/2026, 12:00:00 AM	65.5%
9/16/2026, 11:00:00 PM	65.5%
9/16/2026, 10:00:00 PM	65.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-30.5 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

24h Volume

$160.3K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$121.0K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 3 days

End Date

Sep 23, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 71/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 92

Persistence 84

Data Confidence Medium (67)

Next Steps

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