Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?

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Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-33.1 pp

Signal Score

65/100

Data Confidence

High (73)

24h probability fell 33.1pp

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-22 04:10 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $71,009
High data confidence (73)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-33.1 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

Coverage

5d of stored history

126 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 22, 04:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.2%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.4%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.3%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.7%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 PM	2.1%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.8%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.8%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 PM	6.8%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 PM	6.7%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 PM	7.7%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 PM	73.8%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 PM	83.4%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 PM	54.3%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 PM	21.8%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 AM	12.3%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM	12.0%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 AM	14.9%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 AM	34.4%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 AM	36.2%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 AM	40.3%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 AM	33.2%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

24h Volume

$142.6K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$71.0K

Market Significance

High (81)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 22, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 65/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 40

Data Confidence High (73)

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