US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

98.0%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

Signal Score

23/100

Data Confidence

High (75)

24h probability rose 0.5pp

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-20 18:35 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $49,199
High data confidence (75)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

98.0%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

3d of stored history

80 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 20, 06:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/20/2026, 6:30:00 PM	98.0%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	99.4%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	97.9%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	97.4%
9/20/2026, 3:45:00 PM	97.5%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM	97.5%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM	97.4%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM	96.9%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM	97.0%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 AM	96.7%
9/20/2026, 10:45:00 AM	96.6%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM	97.0%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM	96.9%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 AM	97.2%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 AM	97.0%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 AM	95.9%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 AM	95.9%
9/20/2026, 4:30:00 AM	94.3%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 AM	95.8%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 AM	94.6%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 AM	92.7%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 AM	92.5%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 AM	86.7%
9/19/2026, 11:45:00 PM	86.7%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$364.3K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$49.2K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Sep 20, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 23/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 93

Persistence 58

Data Confidence High (75)

Next Steps

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