US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Open · Resolves in 43 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

48.5%

24h Change

-7.0 pp

Signal Score

27/100

Data Confidence

Medium (60)

24h probability fell 7.0pp

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-19 12:22 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $64,562
Medium data confidence (60)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

48.5%

24h Change

-7.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

45 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 19, 12:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/19/2026, 12:15:00 PM	48.5%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 PM	48.5%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 AM	48.5%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 AM	47.0%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 AM	46.5%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 AM	46.5%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 AM	46.5%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 AM	46.5%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 AM	46.5%
9/18/2026, 11:00:00 PM	47.5%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 PM	47.5%
9/18/2026, 9:00:00 PM	47.0%
9/18/2026, 8:00:00 PM	44.5%
9/18/2026, 7:00:00 PM	52.5%
9/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM	52.5%
9/18/2026, 5:00:00 PM	52.5%
9/18/2026, 4:00:00 PM	52.5%
9/18/2026, 3:00:00 PM	55.5%
9/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM	55.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$76.1K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$64.6K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 43 days

End Date

Oct 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 27/100.

Probability Momentum 23

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (60)

Next Steps

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