Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?

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Current Probability

2.4%

24h Change

-26.1 pp

Signal Score

53/100

Data Confidence

Medium (68)

24h probability fell 26.1pp

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 04:13 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $9,393
Medium data confidence (68)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

2.4%

24h Change

-26.1 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

Coverage

3d of stored history

84 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 04:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	2.4%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.4%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	7.5%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	6.5%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM	7.0%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM	7.5%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 PM	14.5%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 PM	10.5%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 PM	19.5%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM	23.5%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	16.0%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	18.5%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	17.5%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM	17.5%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM	17.5%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM	17.5%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 AM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM	20.0%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM	26.5%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 AM	35.5%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 AM	34.5%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 AM	34.5%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 AM	33.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+2.1 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

24h Volume

$116.2K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$9.4K

Market Significance

Moderate (67)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 21, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 53/100.

Probability Momentum 87

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 82

Persistence 10

Data Confidence Medium (68)

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