Spread: Georgia (-24.5)

Closed View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

81.0%

24h Change

+30.0 pp

Signal Score

57/100

Data Confidence

Medium (56)

24h probability rose 30.0pp

Data may be stale — last sync exceeded two update cycles. Freshness updates on the next successful sync.

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-19 20:19 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
  • Low liquidity ($120)
  • Medium data confidence (56)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Latest 81.0% · Sep 19, 08:15 PM

47% 68% 88% Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep 19 Sep 19 Current 81.0% · 1d of stored history · 25 pts

Current

81.0%

24h Change

+30.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

1d of stored history

28 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 19, 08:15 PM

View history table
Time Probability
9/19/2026, 8:15:00 PM 81.0%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 PM 81.0%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 PM 84.5%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 PM 64.0%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 PM 64.5%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM 51.5%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 PM 51.5%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM 50.5%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 PM 51.5%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 PM 50.5%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 AM 50.5%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 AM 50.5%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 AM 50.5%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 AM 50.5%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 AM 50.5%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 AM 50.5%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 AM 50.5%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 AM 51.5%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 AM 51.5%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 AM 51.5%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 AM 50.5%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 AM 50.5%
9/18/2026, 11:00:00 PM 50.5%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 PM 51.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-3.5 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$194.4K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$120

Market Significance

Moderate (65)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 19, 2026

Attention Score

44

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 57/100.

Probability Momentum 100
Volume Activity 0
Liquidity Quality 70
Persistence 10
Data Confidence Medium (56)

Next Steps

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