Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?

Open · Resolves in 2 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

100.0%

24h Change

+15.5 pp

Signal Score

45/100

Data Confidence

High (74)

24h probability rose 15.5pp

Market data

Updated 36 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-22 16:38 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $77,410
High data confidence (74)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

100.0%

24h Change

+15.5 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

4d of stored history

96 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 22, 04:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/22/2026, 4:30:00 PM	100.0%
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 PM	100.0%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 PM	96.3%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 PM	94.5%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 PM	93.0%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 PM	96.7%
9/22/2026, 11:15:00 AM	97.6%
9/22/2026, 11:00:00 AM	97.5%
9/22/2026, 10:00:00 AM	98.0%
9/22/2026, 9:00:00 AM	98.4%
9/22/2026, 8:00:00 AM	97.7%
9/22/2026, 7:00:00 AM	97.0%
9/22/2026, 6:00:00 AM	96.8%
9/22/2026, 5:00:00 AM	95.7%
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 AM	96.3%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 AM	98.0%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 AM	98.5%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 AM	98.0%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 AM	97.8%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 PM	97.4%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 PM	97.3%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 PM	98.8%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 PM	96.7%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 PM	97.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+3.7 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$152.5K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$77.4K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 2 days

End Date

Sep 24, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 45/100.

Probability Momentum 52

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 91

Persistence 54

Data Confidence High (74)

Next Steps

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