S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 22?

Closed View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-48.9 pp

Signal Score

71/100

Data Confidence

Medium (66)

24h probability fell 48.9pp

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-22 21:04 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $16,030
Medium data confidence (66)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-48.9 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

1d of stored history

33 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 22, 09:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/22/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/22/2026, 8:00:00 PM	62.0%
9/22/2026, 7:00:00 PM	67.5%
9/22/2026, 6:00:00 PM	70.5%
9/22/2026, 5:00:00 PM	54.5%
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 PM	40.5%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 PM	51.0%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 PM	57.0%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 PM	56.5%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 PM	55.0%
9/22/2026, 11:00:00 AM	59.0%
9/22/2026, 10:00:00 AM	59.5%
9/22/2026, 9:00:00 AM	53.0%
9/22/2026, 8:00:00 AM	45.5%
9/22/2026, 7:00:00 AM	57.0%
9/22/2026, 6:00:00 AM	57.0%
9/22/2026, 5:00:00 AM	52.5%
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 AM	51.0%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 AM	53.0%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 AM	51.5%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 AM	53.5%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 AM	54.0%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 PM	54.0%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 PM	50.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-61.9 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$85.0K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$16.0K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 22, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 71/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 87

Data Confidence Medium (66)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗