Bitcoin Up or Down on September 24?

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Current Probability

28.5%

24h Change

-21.5 pp

Signal Score

47/100

Data Confidence

Medium (59)

24h probability fell 21.5pp

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-24 11:25 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $36,288
Medium data confidence (59)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

28.5%

24h Change

-21.5 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

44 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 24, 11:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/24/2026, 11:15:00 AM	28.5%
9/24/2026, 11:00:00 AM	28.5%
9/24/2026, 10:00:00 AM	22.5%
9/24/2026, 9:00:00 AM	37.5%
9/24/2026, 8:00:00 AM	69.5%
9/24/2026, 7:00:00 AM	54.5%
9/24/2026, 6:00:00 AM	50.5%
9/24/2026, 5:00:00 AM	51.0%
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 AM	46.5%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 AM	62.5%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 AM	55.5%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 AM	60.5%
9/24/2026, 12:00:00 AM	63.5%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 PM	68.5%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 PM	64.5%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 PM	58.5%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 PM	63.5%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 PM	60.5%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM	59.5%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 PM	50.5%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM	47.5%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 PM	50.0%
9/23/2026, 2:00:00 PM	50.0%
9/23/2026, 1:00:00 PM	50.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+6.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$85.4K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$36.3K

Market Significance

High (70)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 24, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 47/100.

Probability Momentum 72

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 10

Data Confidence Medium (59)

Next Steps

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