M25 Sharm ElSheikh: Keshav Chopra vs Aristarkh Safonov

Open · Resolves in 7 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.2%

24h Change

-83.8 pp

Signal Score

61/100

Data Confidence

Medium (60)

24h probability fell 83.8pp

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-24 04:01 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $39,524
Medium data confidence (60)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.2%

24h Change

-83.8 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

1d of stored history

34 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 24, 04:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.2%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.2%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.2%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/24/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 10:45:00 PM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/23/2026, 6:15:00 PM	0.4%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.6%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 PM	79.0%
9/23/2026, 2:00:00 PM	90.5%
9/23/2026, 1:00:00 PM	78.5%
9/23/2026, 12:00:00 PM	82.5%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 AM	90.0%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 AM	88.0%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 AM	88.0%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 AM	86.0%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 AM	85.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$107.5K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$39.5K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 7 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 61/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (60)

Next Steps

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