Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Open · Resolves in 779 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

16.2%

24h Change

+3.4 pp

Signal Score

47/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability rose 3.4pp; volume is 13.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-16 13:17 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 3.4pp
24h volume is 13.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $449,192

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

16.2%

24h Change

+3.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

67 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 16, 01:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/16/2026, 1:15:00 PM	16.2%
9/16/2026, 1:00:00 PM	16.2%
9/16/2026, 12:00:00 PM	16.2%
9/16/2026, 11:00:00 AM	16.2%
9/16/2026, 10:00:00 AM	16.2%
9/16/2026, 9:00:00 AM	16.4%
9/16/2026, 8:00:00 AM	16.6%
9/16/2026, 7:15:00 AM	17.0%
9/16/2026, 7:00:00 AM	17.2%
9/16/2026, 6:00:00 AM	17.2%
9/16/2026, 5:00:00 AM	17.3%
9/16/2026, 4:00:00 AM	17.5%
9/16/2026, 3:00:00 AM	17.2%
9/16/2026, 2:00:00 AM	16.7%
9/16/2026, 1:00:00 AM	18.3%
9/16/2026, 12:00:00 AM	18.4%
9/15/2026, 11:00:00 PM	18.4%
9/15/2026, 10:00:00 PM	18.4%
9/15/2026, 9:00:00 PM	18.3%
9/15/2026, 8:00:00 PM	18.1%
9/15/2026, 7:00:00 PM	17.8%
9/15/2026, 6:00:00 PM	18.4%
9/15/2026, 5:00:00 PM	18.5%
9/15/2026, 4:30:00 PM	17.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$337.8K

Volume vs Baseline

13.9x baseline

Liquidity

$449.2K

Market Significance

High (91)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 779 days

End Date

Nov 7, 2028

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 47/100.

Probability Momentum 11

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 95

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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