Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Open · Resolves in 822 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

15.0%

24h Change

+0.3 pp

Signal Score

33/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 0.3pp; volume is 2.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-07 09:37 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.3pp
24h volume is 2.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $302,483

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

15.0%

24h Change

+0.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

144 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 7, 09:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/7/2026, 9:30:00 AM	15.0%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 AM	15.0%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 AM	15.0%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 AM	15.0%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 AM	14.8%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 AM	14.8%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 AM	14.8%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 AM	14.8%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 AM	14.8%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 AM	14.8%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 AM	14.8%
8/6/2026, 11:00:00 PM	14.8%
8/6/2026, 10:00:00 PM	14.8%
8/6/2026, 9:00:00 PM	14.8%
8/6/2026, 8:00:00 PM	14.8%
8/6/2026, 7:00:00 PM	14.8%
8/6/2026, 6:00:00 PM	14.8%
8/6/2026, 5:00:00 PM	15.3%
8/6/2026, 4:00:00 PM	15.3%
8/6/2026, 3:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/6/2026, 2:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/6/2026, 1:00:00 PM	14.6%
8/6/2026, 12:00:00 PM	14.8%
8/6/2026, 11:00:00 AM	14.8%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$42.9K

Volume vs Baseline

2.9x baseline

Liquidity

$302.5K

Market Significance

High (86)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 822 days

End Date

Nov 7, 2028

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 33/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 67

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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