Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Open · Resolves in 775 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

2.5%

24h Change

+0.1 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

volume is 133.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 23:04 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 133.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $527,497

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

2.5%

24h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

100 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 11:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 PM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 PM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 PM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 PM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 PM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 PM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 PM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 PM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 PM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 PM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 PM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 12:15:00 PM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 PM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 AM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 AM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 AM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 AM	2.6%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 AM	2.6%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 AM	2.6%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	2.5%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	2.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$81.4K

Volume vs Baseline

133.5x baseline

Liquidity

$527.5K

Market Significance

High (88)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 775 days

End Date

Nov 7, 2028

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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