Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Open · Resolves in 779 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

+0.1 pp

Signal Score

43/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability rose 0.1pp; volume is 70.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 22 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-20 15:45 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.1pp
24h volume is 70.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $2,493,065

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

171 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 20, 03:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/20/2026, 3:45:00 PM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 10:45:00 AM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 4:30:00 AM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/19/2026, 11:45:00 PM	0.1%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$457.9K

Volume vs Baseline

70.4x baseline

Liquidity

$2.5M

Market Significance

High (92)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 779 days

End Date

Nov 7, 2028

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 43/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 97

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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