Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Open · Resolves in 826 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.4%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 0.1pp; volume is 14.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-30 18:59 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.1pp
24h volume is 14.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $2,122,444

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.4%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

57 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 30, 06:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/30/2026, 6:45:00 PM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.4%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.4%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$128.8K

Volume vs Baseline

14.0x baseline

Liquidity

$2.1M

Market Significance

High (89)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 826 days

End Date

Nov 7, 2028

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 91

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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