Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Open · Resolves in 822 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.8%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

Signal Score

45/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability rose 0.5pp; volume is 4.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-08 08:07 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.5pp
24h volume is 4.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $250,459

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.8%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 8, 08:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.8%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/8/2026, 12:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.5%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.5%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.5%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 PM	1.5%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 PM	1.5%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.5%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$53.9K

Volume vs Baseline

4.3x baseline

Liquidity

$250.5K

Market Significance

High (87)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 822 days

End Date

Nov 7, 2028

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 45/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 90

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 58

Data Confidence High (84)

Next Steps

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