Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 150 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

7.5%

24h Change

-1.0 pp

Signal Score

35/100

Data Confidence

High (88)

24h probability fell 1.0pp; volume is 1.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 54 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.0pp
24h volume is 1.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $729,165

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

7.5%

24h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

178 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	7.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	7.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM	8.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$79.7K

Volume vs Baseline

1.4x baseline

Liquidity

$729.2K

Market Significance

High (79)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 150 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 35/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 22

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 100

Data Confidence High (88)

Next Steps

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