Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 103 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

4.5%

24h Change

-1.0 pp

Signal Score

38/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 1.0pp; volume is 3.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-18 10:53 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.0pp
24h volume is 3.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $887,518

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

4.5%

24h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

121 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 18, 10:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/18/2026, 10:45:00 AM	4.5%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 AM	4.5%
9/18/2026, 9:00:00 AM	4.5%
9/18/2026, 8:00:00 AM	4.5%
9/18/2026, 7:00:00 AM	4.5%
9/18/2026, 6:00:00 AM	4.5%
9/18/2026, 5:00:00 AM	4.5%
9/18/2026, 4:30:00 AM	4.5%
9/18/2026, 4:00:00 AM	4.5%
9/18/2026, 3:00:00 AM	4.5%
9/18/2026, 2:00:00 AM	4.5%
9/18/2026, 1:00:00 AM	4.5%
9/18/2026, 12:00:00 AM	4.5%
9/17/2026, 11:00:00 PM	4.5%
9/17/2026, 10:00:00 PM	4.5%
9/17/2026, 9:00:00 PM	4.5%
9/17/2026, 8:00:00 PM	4.5%
9/17/2026, 7:00:00 PM	4.5%
9/17/2026, 6:00:00 PM	4.5%
9/17/2026, 5:00:00 PM	4.5%
9/17/2026, 4:30:00 PM	4.5%
9/17/2026, 4:00:00 PM	4.5%
9/17/2026, 3:00:00 PM	5.5%
9/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM	5.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$460.6K

Volume vs Baseline

3.4x baseline

Liquidity

$887.5K

Market Significance

High (81)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 103 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 38/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 76

Liquidity Quality 97

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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