Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Open · Resolves in 826 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

9.0%

24h Change

-0.3 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 0.3pp; volume is 7.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 23:54 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.3pp
24h volume is 7.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $372,301

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

9.0%

24h Change

-0.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

148 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 11:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	9.0%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	9.0%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	9.0%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	9.0%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	9.0%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	9.0%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	9.0%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	9.0%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	9.0%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	9.0%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	9.0%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	8.9%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	8.9%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM	8.9%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 AM	8.8%
8/3/2026, 10:45:00 AM	8.8%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	8.8%
8/3/2026, 9:15:00 AM	8.8%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	8.8%
8/3/2026, 8:45:00 AM	8.8%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM	8.8%
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	8.8%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	8.8%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	8.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$70.6K

Volume vs Baseline

7.7x baseline

Liquidity

$372.3K

Market Significance

High (87)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 826 days

End Date

Nov 7, 2028

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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