Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Open · Resolves in 826 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

13.1%

24h Change

+0.7 pp

Signal Score

41/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability rose 0.7pp; volume is 3.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-31 17:12 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.7pp
24h volume is 3.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $399,333

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

13.1%

24h Change

+0.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

62 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 31, 05:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 PM	13.1%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 PM	12.8%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 PM	12.7%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM	12.6%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 PM	12.4%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 PM	12.3%
7/31/2026, 11:00:00 AM	12.3%
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM	12.3%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM	12.3%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 AM	12.3%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 AM	12.3%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 AM	12.3%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 AM	12.3%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 AM	12.3%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 AM	12.3%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 AM	12.3%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 AM	12.3%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 AM	12.3%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM	12.3%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 PM	12.3%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 PM	12.3%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 PM	12.3%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 PM	12.3%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM	12.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$51.4K

Volume vs Baseline

3.3x baseline

Liquidity

$399.3K

Market Significance

High (86)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 826 days

End Date

Nov 7, 2028

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 41/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 74

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 57

Data Confidence High (84)

Next Steps

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