Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Open · Resolves in 825 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.5%

24h Change

+0.3 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 0.3pp; volume is 7.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-05 10:12 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.3pp
24h volume is 7.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $331,280

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.5%

24h Change

+0.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

162 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 5, 10:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.5%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.5%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.5%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.5%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.5%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.2%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$71.4K

Volume vs Baseline

7.8x baseline

Liquidity

$331.3K

Market Significance

High (87)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 825 days

End Date

Nov 7, 2028

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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