Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Open · Resolves in 826 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

39/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 0.0pp; volume is 4.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-01 11:49 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.0pp
24h volume is 4.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $1,120,404

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

101 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 1, 11:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/1/2026, 11:45:00 AM	0.1%
8/1/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/1/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/1/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/1/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/1/2026, 7:30:00 AM	0.1%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/1/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/1/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/1/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/1/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/1/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/1/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/1/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 9:45:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$93.8K

Volume vs Baseline

4.4x baseline

Liquidity

$1.1M

Market Significance

High (88)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 826 days

End Date

Nov 7, 2028

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 39/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 91

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗