Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Open · Resolves in 826 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

46.1%

24h Change

+3.2 pp

Signal Score

46/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability rose 3.2pp; volume is 9.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-02 15:48 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 3.2pp
24h volume is 9.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $337,375

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

46.1%

24h Change

+3.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

114 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 2, 03:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/2/2026, 3:45:00 PM	46.1%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 PM	46.0%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM	46.1%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 PM	46.0%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM	46.1%
8/2/2026, 11:45:00 AM	45.8%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM	45.8%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM	45.3%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 AM	45.1%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 AM	45.1%
8/2/2026, 7:30:00 AM	45.1%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 AM	45.0%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 AM	45.3%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 AM	45.1%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 AM	45.1%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 AM	45.0%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 AM	44.9%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 AM	44.9%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 AM	44.8%
8/1/2026, 11:00:00 PM	44.9%
8/1/2026, 10:00:00 PM	44.8%
8/1/2026, 9:00:00 PM	44.9%
8/1/2026, 8:00:00 PM	44.6%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 PM	44.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$100.0K

Volume vs Baseline

9.0x baseline

Liquidity

$337.4K

Market Significance

High (88)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 826 days

End Date

Nov 7, 2028

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 46/100.

Probability Momentum 11

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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