Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Open · Resolves in 780 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

+0.1 pp

Signal Score

43/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

volume is 565.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-17 11:19 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 565.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $1,285,848

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

113 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 17, 11:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/17/2026, 11:15:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 4:15:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 10:45:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$948.4K

Volume vs Baseline

565.8x baseline

Liquidity

$1.3M

Market Significance

High (94)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 780 days

End Date

Nov 7, 2028

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 43/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 100

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

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