Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Open · Resolves in 826 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.8%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

volume is 150.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 150.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $1,948,003

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.8%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

167 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	0.8%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	0.8%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	0.8%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	0.8%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.8%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$252.9K

Volume vs Baseline

150.8x baseline

Liquidity

$1.9M

Market Significance

High (91)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 826 days

End Date

Nov 7, 2028

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 94

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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