Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Open · Resolves in 820 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 0.1pp; volume is 134.1x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 16:57 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.1pp
24h volume is 134.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $2,237,046

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

170 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 04:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 4:45:00 PM	0.1%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/10/2026, 9:15:00 AM	0.1%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/10/2026, 7:45:00 AM	0.1%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/10/2026, 5:30:00 AM	0.3%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$134.6K

Volume vs Baseline

134.1x baseline

Liquidity

$2.2M

Market Significance

High (89)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 820 days

End Date

Nov 7, 2028

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 91

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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