Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Open · Resolves in 826 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.4%

24h Change

+0.4 pp

Signal Score

17/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability rose 0.4pp; volume is 0.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 23:54 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.4pp
24h volume is 0.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $428,687

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.4%

24h Change

+0.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

162 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 11:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.5%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	1.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.6%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.6%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	1.6%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	1.6%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.6%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/3/2026, 10:45:00 AM	1.6%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/3/2026, 9:15:00 AM	1.6%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/3/2026, 8:45:00 AM	1.6%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	1.7%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.6%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$113.6K

Volume vs Baseline

0.9x baseline

Liquidity

$428.7K

Market Significance

High (88)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 826 days

End Date

Nov 7, 2028

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 17/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 91

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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