Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Open · Resolves in 103 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

92.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

23/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

volume is 1.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 17 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-23 18:19 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 1.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $645,464

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

92.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

159 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 23, 06:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/23/2026, 6:15:00 PM	92.5%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM	92.5%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 PM	92.5%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM	92.5%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 PM	92.5%
9/23/2026, 2:00:00 PM	92.5%
9/23/2026, 1:15:00 PM	92.5%
9/23/2026, 1:00:00 PM	93.5%
9/23/2026, 12:00:00 PM	93.5%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 AM	93.5%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 AM	93.5%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 AM	93.5%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 AM	93.5%
9/23/2026, 7:30:00 AM	92.5%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 AM	92.5%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 AM	92.5%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 AM	92.5%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 AM	92.5%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 AM	92.5%
9/23/2026, 2:00:00 AM	92.5%
9/23/2026, 1:00:00 AM	92.5%
9/23/2026, 12:00:00 AM	92.5%
9/22/2026, 11:00:00 PM	92.5%
9/22/2026, 10:00:00 PM	92.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$100.7K

Volume vs Baseline

1.5x baseline

Liquidity

$645.5K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 103 days

End Date

Jan 5, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 23/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 26

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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