Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

4.0%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

Signal Score

18/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 0.1pp; volume is 1.1x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-02 07:40 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.1pp
24h volume is 1.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $617,037

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

4.0%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

118 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 2, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/2/2026, 7:30:00 AM	4.0%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/1/2026, 11:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/1/2026, 10:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/1/2026, 9:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/1/2026, 8:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/1/2026, 6:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/1/2026, 5:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/1/2026, 3:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/1/2026, 2:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/1/2026, 1:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/1/2026, 12:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/1/2026, 11:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/1/2026, 10:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/1/2026, 9:00:00 AM	4.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$50.0K

Volume vs Baseline

1.1x baseline

Liquidity

$617.0K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 18/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 7

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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