Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

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Current Probability

5.9%

24h Change

-10.5 pp

Signal Score

43/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 10.5pp; volume is 2.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-30 18:59 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 10.5pp
24h volume is 2.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $117,745

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

5.9%

24h Change

-10.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

57 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 30, 06:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/30/2026, 6:45:00 PM	5.9%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM	5.9%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 PM	5.1%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM	5.3%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM	5.0%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM	5.3%
7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM	4.7%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM	6.0%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM	4.0%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM	6.2%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM	15.3%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM	15.0%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM	15.8%
7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM	15.8%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM	16.0%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM	16.0%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM	15.9%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM	15.8%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM	15.4%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM	15.7%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM	16.1%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM	17.4%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM	16.3%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM	16.6%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$54.7K

Volume vs Baseline

2.2x baseline

Liquidity

$117.7K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 43/100.

Probability Momentum 35

Volume Activity 49

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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