Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

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Current Probability

96.8%

24h Change

+12.3 pp

Signal Score

54/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability rose 12.3pp; volume is 2.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-31 10:05 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 12.3pp
24h volume is 2.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $164,954

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

96.8%

24h Change

+12.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

59 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 31, 10:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM	96.8%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM	96.7%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 AM	96.6%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 AM	95.9%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 AM	95.9%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 AM	95.9%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 AM	95.5%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 AM	95.5%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 AM	94.5%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 AM	95.5%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 AM	94.5%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM	94.5%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 PM	94.5%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 PM	93.5%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 PM	94.5%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 PM	94.5%
7/30/2026, 6:45:00 PM	94.5%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM	94.5%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 PM	93.5%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM	93.5%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM	93.5%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM	93.5%
7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM	94.5%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM	94.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$86.7K

Volume vs Baseline

2.8x baseline

Liquidity

$165.0K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 54/100.

Probability Momentum 41

Volume Activity 64

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 40

Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

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