Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Open · Resolves in 61 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

64.5%

24h Change

-1.0 pp

Signal Score

27/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 1.0pp; volume is 1.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 59 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.0pp
24h volume is 1.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $343,042

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

64.5%

24h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

160 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	64.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	64.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	65.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	65.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	64.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	64.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	65.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	65.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	65.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	65.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	65.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	65.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	65.5%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	65.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$66.5K

Volume vs Baseline

1.8x baseline

Liquidity

$343.0K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 61 days

End Date

Oct 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 27/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 35

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗