Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Open · Resolves in 55 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.1%

24h Change

+0.6 pp

Signal Score

22/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 0.6pp; volume is 1.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 11:12 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.6pp
24h volume is 1.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $318,412

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.1%

24h Change

+0.6 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

164 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 11:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/10/2026, 9:15:00 AM	1.1%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.0%
8/10/2026, 7:45:00 AM	1.0%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.0%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.0%
8/10/2026, 5:30:00 AM	1.0%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.0%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.0%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.0%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$30.6K

Volume vs Baseline

1.4x baseline

Liquidity

$318.4K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 55 days

End Date

Oct 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 22/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 22

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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