Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Brazil Presidential Election

Open · Resolves in 61 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.3%

24h Change

+0.1 pp

Signal Score

37/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability rose 0.1pp; volume is 3.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 07:36 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.1pp
24h volume is 3.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $266,543

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.3%

24h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

141 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	0.3%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/2/2026, 8:15:00 PM	0.3%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/2/2026, 3:45:00 PM	0.3%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/2/2026, 11:45:00 AM	0.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$104.0K

Volume vs Baseline

3.8x baseline

Liquidity

$266.5K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 61 days

End Date

Oct 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 37/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 82

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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