Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Open · Resolves in 61 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

27.7%

24h Change

+2.9 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability rose 2.9pp; volume is 3.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 58 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 2.9pp
24h volume is 3.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $204,839

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

27.7%

24h Change

+2.9 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

171 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	27.7%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	27.7%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	27.6%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	27.6%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	28.1%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	28.1%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	27.6%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	27.8%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	27.6%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	27.6%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	27.2%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	26.6%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	26.6%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	26.6%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	26.6%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	26.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	26.9%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	25.9%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	25.4%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	25.4%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	25.1%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	25.4%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	25.4%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	25.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$85.9K

Volume vs Baseline

3.3x baseline

Liquidity

$204.8K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 61 days

End Date

Oct 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 10

Volume Activity 73

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 42

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗