Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Open · Resolves in 10 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

57.4%

24h Change

-1.6 pp

Signal Score

19/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 1.6pp; volume is 0.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-24 04:01 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.6pp
24h volume is 0.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $401,481

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

57.4%

24h Change

-1.6 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

179 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 24, 04:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 AM	57.4%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 AM	57.4%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 AM	57.4%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 AM	58.0%
9/24/2026, 12:00:00 AM	58.1%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 PM	58.1%
9/23/2026, 10:45:00 PM	58.1%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 PM	58.1%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 PM	58.3%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 PM	58.6%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 PM	58.8%
9/23/2026, 6:15:00 PM	58.9%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM	58.9%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 PM	58.9%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM	58.9%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 PM	58.9%
9/23/2026, 2:00:00 PM	58.9%
9/23/2026, 1:15:00 PM	58.9%
9/23/2026, 1:00:00 PM	58.9%
9/23/2026, 12:00:00 PM	59.0%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 AM	59.0%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 AM	59.0%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 AM	59.0%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 AM	59.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$108.7K

Volume vs Baseline

0.9x baseline

Liquidity

$401.5K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 10 days

End Date

Oct 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 19/100.

Probability Momentum 5

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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