Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Brazil Presidential Election

Open · Resolves in 61 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.8%

24h Change

+0.4 pp

Signal Score

27/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 0.4pp; volume is 1.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 07:36 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.4pp
24h volume is 1.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $293,313

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.8%

24h Change

+0.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

146 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	0.8%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.7%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.6%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.6%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.6%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.6%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.6%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.6%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/2/2026, 8:15:00 PM	0.7%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/2/2026, 3:45:00 PM	0.7%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/2/2026, 11:45:00 AM	1.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$46.3K

Volume vs Baseline

1.9x baseline

Liquidity

$293.3K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 61 days

End Date

Oct 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 27/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 40

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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