Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Brazil Presidential Election

Open · Resolves in 61 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.3%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

Signal Score

39/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 0.1pp; volume is 5.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-01 07:36 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.1pp
24h volume is 5.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $146,962

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.3%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

88 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 1, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/1/2026, 7:30:00 AM	0.3%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/1/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/1/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/1/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/1/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/1/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/1/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/1/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.4%
7/31/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.4%
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.5%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.5%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.9%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.3%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.3%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.3%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.3%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.3%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.3%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.3%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.3%
7/31/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.4%
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.4%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$40.5K

Volume vs Baseline

5.7x baseline

Liquidity

$147.0K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 61 days

End Date

Oct 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 39/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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